That is the Tremendous Bowl made for playing. The American Gaming Affiliation estimates that People will wager a mixed $23.1 billion on the Huge Recreation this 12 months, up from $16 billion year-over-year. Whether or not it’s your first time betting on the large recreation otherwise you’re a seasoned vet, you don’t wish to be putting bets blindly. Take it from somebody who’s already put collectively extensive statistical deep-dives on this matchup: The chances might be in your favor on this Sunday night time. Put in your finest Danny Ocean impression, and prepare to rob Vegas blind this weekend with the most effective bets of Tremendous Bowl LVIII.
Reba McEntire Nationwide Anthem 90.5 seconds
Take the underneath
I mentioned in our “Most Outlandish Prop Bets” column earlier this week that I believed it was ridiculous for McEntire to go underneath 90 seconds on the Anthem. It’s a breakneck tempo that solely marching bands play at. Singers savor the second. They soak all of it in, and add little vocal thrives. Then I noticed this playlist compiled by Reba(‘s YouTube channel) herself. It makes up a handful of her most notable former runs on the Anthem. I used to be blown away. She is EFFICIENT. Nonetheless will get the vocal aptitude in, adlibs a bit, and nonetheless will get in properly underneath the wire. A few of her runs throughout the World Sequence nearly end within the 70s. Her splits are loopy, hitting “rocket’s crimson glare” routinely across the 35-second mark. I’ll add she will get slower with age – her anthem on the 1974 Rodeo was a breakneck 72 seconds, whereas her anthem at a 1999 Cowboys recreation was precisely 90 seconds. If we’re being actually sharp, betting underneath 90 seconds might be reducing it shut, however any books the place you see a 1:35, or 1:40 line, hammer the underneath.
Patrick Mahomes 260.5 Passing Yards
Take the underneath
Mahomes is understood for his unbelievable achievements by way of the air. This nearly appears like a rat line. Mahomes has thrown underneath 260 yards in 37 of his 113 career games, playoffs or common season. Which means we place this guess on any recreation at random in Mahomes’ profession, we lose simply over two out of each thrice. Of these 37, although, 12 have occurred this season, with one coming within the playoffs towards Buffalo. Mahomes additionally threw for simply 182 yards throughout final 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl towards Philadelphia. The Chiefs quarterback doesn’t usually over-produce in Tremendous Bowls, both. With significantly better offenses than this one, Mahomes has by no means damaged 286 passing yards in a Tremendous Bowl. This can be a quarterback that may do something to win. That features taking a backseat to the run recreation, or successful along with his personal legs to make the most of the 49ers. There are comparable sharp traces on Purdy for yardage and cross try totals, however I believe traces are going to be far more favorable within the Mahomes division regardless of the same recreation plans.
Christian McCaffrey 128.5 Speeding + Receiving Yards
Take the over
I believe it’s protected to say that everybody who has accomplished an oz of analysis into this recreation is aware of Christian McCaffrey goes to play an enormous half in San Francisco’s recreation plan. The Chiefs have been abysmal stopping the run this season, and the 49ers are some of the run-heavy groups in soccer. This can be a completely set line. McCaffrey has eclipsed 128 all-purpose yards precisely 16 times in the 32 games he has performed for San Francisco. That is, nonetheless, a little bit of a hedge on how I believe McCaffrey will get these yards. The Chiefs are the most effective groups within the league at overlaying up routes beneath. Of the 354 routes McCaffrey ran in 2023, 173 of them have been both flats, shallows, or screens, in keeping with thirty third Crew’s The Edge. He runs the overwhelming majority of his routes (234 of 354) out of the backfield, which means they’re extra more likely to find yourself within the short-yardage blanket the Chiefs cowl so properly. The actual juice on McCaffrey lies in his alternate speeding prop. Whilst you might choose McCaffrey getting over 128 all-purpose yards at -120, you will get his over 115 alternate speeding prop at +205. I’m too huge a coward, however possibly you’re not.
Rashee Rice 6.5 Receptions
Take the over
The Chiefs rookie has been the center and soul of this Chiefs receiving corps, working his catch totals up dramatically over the course of the season. Since Week 11 of the common season, Rice has solely fallen in need of the 6.5 receptions line twice in 9 video games – as soon as within the Week 17 matchup towards the Bengals, and as soon as within the Divisional Spherical matchup towards the Payments. This barely conflicts with my perception that the Chiefs could have a extra run-focused, methodical gameplan heading into Sunday, and Rice will certainly have his palms full most certainly drawing Charvarius Ward as his primary task, however in case you assume that is going to be a detailed recreation in any respect, Rice is the man to guess on. Plus, his odds for six.5 catches are far more pleasant (-115 at DraftKings) than Travis Kelce’s to catch the identical passes (-166 at DraftKings).
Brock Purdy 0.5 Interceptions
Take the over
Brock Purdy is an efficient quarterback, however he’s nonetheless younger and a bit of frantic. He’s superior within the Shanahan system as a result of he’s keen to take photographs downfield and make some big-risk throws. Purdy’s additionally knocked as a result of he makes some big-risk throws at instances when he completely shouldn’t. Purdy is nice at escaping strain, however he makes extra turnover-worthy throws when pressured. The one manner the Chiefs are going to remain on this recreation defensively is that if they drive Purdy to make errors. Kansas Metropolis will get one blunder out of Purdy on Sunday.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 19.5 Receiving Yards
Take the over
We touched on how loopy this line is within the “Outlandish Props” column, so I received’t go lengthy right here, however Marquez Valdes-Scanting is the one semi-functional Chiefs receiver not named Rashee Rice. He’s additionally Kansas Metropolis’s finest big-play menace. Valdes-Scantling averages 18.38 yards per reception in his playoff profession. This 12 months alone, MVS is placing up 25 yards per reception within the postseason. That is nearly solely a guess on “Will Marquez Valdes-Scantling catch one cross within the Tremendous Bowl?” If you happen to’re bullish on that, the road for his receiving prop can also be set at 1.5 receptions.
Javon Hargrave 0.25 sacks
Take the over
Nick Bosa goes to be the large level of give attention to the 49ers cross rush, however the affect goes to be felt within the inside. With Joe Thuney struggling a torn pectoral, the Chiefs will seemingly be working Nick Allegretti at guard. Hargrave and Arik Armstead have been wonderful on the inside cross rush this 12 months, and getting strain with out blitzing is a key consider stopping the Mahomes offense. You’ll be able to choose both of the 49ers defensive tackles to get a sack, I simply selected Hargrave off sack whole and playoff efficiency.
First TD scored
Choose Deebo Samuel
Perhaps it’s the Jameson Williams trickery burned into my mind from the NFC Championship, however I simply have a sense about this one. I’m going into the primary landing prop like this: Of all of the doable permutations and combos of a landing taking place on this recreation, who has essentially the most alternative to attain? McCaffrey as a dual-threat participant checks out right here, however I like Deebo on the greater odds. Samuel is likely one of the most frequent tackle-breakers within the NFL, leads the 49ers in yards after the catch, and serves as a runner and a receiver. I just like the possibilities of San Francisco working one thing round Samuel’s hyper-varied skillset on the opening drive to attain.
Will There Be A Scorigami?
For the uninitiated, a Scorigami is a time period invented by Jon Bois used to explain an entirely distinctive rating that’s by no means occurred earlier than in an NFL recreation. I wish to guess sure on this. Scorigamis occur within the Tremendous Bowl as a result of an uptick in threat, the elevated desperation to attain, blended in with a little bit of bizarre luck. That being mentioned, in case you look at the database of all scorigamis, we don’t have a ton of openings to work with. We’re anticipating this to be a defensive recreation, so if we hypothetically capped the successful workforce’s level whole at 31 (4 commonplace landing/extra-point combos and a area purpose), our home windows are bleak. 11 is a risk to look out for – you may image a workforce being held to a area purpose early, then scoring and going for 2 late. The numbers it traces up with, although, (12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 29) are more durable to check. 8 has barely fewer openings underneath successful scores simply as obtuse. The others would simply be one-off scores like 25-18, 18-9. To guess on Sure at +2000 just about comes all the way down to praying for a 20-11 end result, or begging for area targets and safeties.